Dr Rumena Filipova commented on recent developments in the Gulf and their broader geopolitical implications in an interview for Bloomberg TV Bulgaria.
She noted that the conflict appears to be moving towards de-escalation, despite initial perceptions of rigidity on the part of the Iranian regime. Mounting military and economic pressures, including weakened leadership capacity and reduced oil export potential, are likely to push Tehran towards a more moderated position. At the same time, China is unlikely to support a prolonged conflict in the region, given the economic costs involved, even as it adopts a more assertive posture and explores both diplomatic engagement and possible forms of support for Iran.
Dr Filipova further highlighted that tensions between the United States and China are expected to intensify across multiple regions, shaping the broader strategic environment in which the conflict is unfolding.
Turning to European security, she underscored the significant structural and political challenges facing any potential “European NATO”. These include gaps in military capabilities, intelligence, and logistical coordination, as well as limited political cohesion among European states. In this context, the United States continues to play a central role in the security architecture of Eastern Europe.
Finally, Dr Filipova observed that Russia’s military capacity has been substantially weakened by the war in Ukraine, making it highly unlikely that Moscow could initiate another conflict in Eastern Europe in the near term.